A mere eight weeks in the past that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
